Quick predix and opinions in major categories, in my favored faux Entertainment Weekly style.
Best Picture
Will Win: Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Should Win (of the nominees): Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World
Best of Possible Worlds (best of all Oscar-qualified films released in 2003): Friday Night
Best Director
Will Win: Peter Jackson, LOTR: The Return of the King
Should Win: Jackson.
Best of Possible Worlds: Claire Denis, Friday Night.
Best Actor
Will Win: Sean Penn, Mystic River
Should Win: Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog
Best of Possible Worlds: Russell Crowe, Master & Commander/Campbell Scott, Secret Lives of Dentists
Best Actress
Will Win: Charlize Theron, Monster
Should Win: Theron (didn't see many of the other nominated perfs)
Best of Possible Worlds: Valerie Lemercier, Friday Night
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Tim Robbins, Mystic River
Should Win: Anybody but Tim Robbins
Best of Possible Worlds: Johnny Depp, Once Upon a Time in Mexico
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain
Should Win: Zellweger
Best of Possible Worlds: Nutsa Kukhianidze, The Good Thief
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Lost in Translation
Should Win: Finding Nemo
Best of Possible Worlds: Shattered Glass
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Mystic River
Should Win: City of God
Best of Possible Worlds: The Secret Lives of Dentists
Best Documentary
Will Win: Capturing the Friedmans
Should Win: Capturing the Friedmans
Best of Possible Worlds: Capturing the Friedmans
Best Foreign Language Picture
Will Win: The Barbarian Invasions
Should Win: Barbarian Invasions is the only nominee I saw.
Best of Possible Worlds (among pictures submitted by countries for consideration): Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter...and Spring
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Finding Nemo
Should Win: Finding Nemo
Best of Possible Worlds: Finding Nemo
Best Art Direction
Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: Master & Commander
Best of Possible Worlds: Down With Love
Best Cinematography
Will Win: Girl With the Pearl Earring
Should Win: Probably Girl With the Pearl Earring
Best of Possible Worlds: Friday Night or Millennium Mambo
Best Original Score
Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: House of Sand and Fog
Best of Possible Worlds: Friday Night or Demonlover
Best Editing
Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: Return of the King
Best of Possible Worlds: The Company or Demonlover
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Return of the King
Should Win: Return of the King
Best of Possible Worlds: Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Best Sound
Will Win: Master & Commander
Should Win: Master & Commander
Best of Possible Worlds: Master & Commander/Secret Lives of Dentists