Saturday, October 30, 2004

In Ohio

Two of the biggest events in my life, yet no posts, you say? I'm actually on a trip, so this will likely be my only post before November 3rd. Last week, I was in NY, where I saw my beloved Red Sox win the Series. Bit of a relief it came so easy, or else I'd bust a gut. But it's still a bit of an anti-climax. Awesome to come out of the bar and into an impromptu celebration from Red Sox Nation in a street corner in the West Village. 500 or more fans gathered to cheer and chant on a random street corner. Folks giving strangers high fives on the street. Spontaneous outbursts. It felt like V-D Day. In New York. I can only imagine what it's like in Boston.

Now in a deep crimson area of Ohio, where I've been doing some canvassing and other campaign work for Ben Konop. More thoughts on Ohio later. Only thing I'll say now: excellent salt quotient on the Mickey D's fries in Ohio. Also, "sunshine skillet" (gravy over sausage bits in a egg skillet) at Bob Evans. My meals have shortened my life by four years, but fuck the Cali low-sodium, organic fat free diet.

Final thoughts on the POTUS race: pure chaos at this point. Random states -- Hawaii, Arkansas, Michigan -- are coming into play. The Osama tape has caused much hand-wringing. And the polls continue to be conflicted. Some, like Newsweek, moving towards Bush, while Zogby and Wash Post has inched towards Kerry's direction. Nobody knows anything at this point.

Looking at his ads and travel schedule, Kerry's betting his marbles on Ohio and Florida. He only needs one of two, but he's clearly looking for a sweep, leaving himself open in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Southwestern states. Everyone seems to think Kerry will take Ohio. If he does, and he holds on to most of the Gore states (he needs to take Wisconsin or Iowa and New Mexico), he'll win. I think the election will come down to Wisconsin. Recent polls look good there, but it's a toss-up.

In Florida, the early voting has favored the Dems to a surprising degree. But I wouldn't count on Jeb's state going blue. Just too many variables (read: voter suppression and fraud).

So my predix: Kerry squeaks out a 285 - 253 win, with formerly red Ohio, New Hampshire, and (surprise) Arkansas turning blue. New Mexico gets a sunburn. Iowa and Wisconsin will be within one point. Michigan and New Jersey will be by over 5 points, but Hawaii will be close. Florida goes to Bush by 2. Ohio goes to Kerry by 3. This is, of course, all pulled out of my ass. Nobody knows anything at this point.

Sorry no links. All election info can be found at Daily Kos.

Also, America Coming Together is organizing bus trips to Nevada from California (and Ohio from New York), for those of you interested. No vote in my lifetime is more important than getting Bush out of office. It will happen.