Monday, February 04, 2008

Super Tuesday Predix

For all of Barack's momentum, what's hurt him the most is "Dream Ticket" meme, which has taken hold after Thursday's convivial debate. Though Obama's gains have been astonishing by any measure, I suspect many undecideds will end up pulling the trigger for Hillary just because Barack hasn't made the most devastating case against her (see the post below for the harsher case), and that they hold out hope that Obama will be picked as Hillary's VP. I've heard this distressing angle in numerous conversations with Hillary supporters and undecideds while canvassing, and it's hard to just say, "Hillary sucks, and Barack knows it, so he'll never her VP". So I see Obama stalling a bit on Tuesday, maybe coming 90 delegates short of Hillary. That should be sufficient for him to go forward and roll over Clinton the rest of the month (the remaining elections on calendar this month are favorable to Obama).


States where Clinton will win > 10%: NY, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma
States where Clinton will win between 5 and 10 points: New Jersey.
States where Clinton will eke out a close win: California (sigh), New Mexico, Arizona, Missouri

States where Obama will eke out a close win: Connecticut, Kansas, Massachusetts (curse of the embittered Patriot fans!)
States where Obama will win between 5 and 10 points: Alabama, Delaware, Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, Americans Abroad, Samoa (?)
States where Obama will win > 10%: Illinois, Georgia, Minnesota, Idaho, Alaska

If Obama's within 50 delegates, he'll have strong momentum going into February 9/10th. If Clinton beats Obama by over 100 delegates, Obama will be in trouble.