Spurs: bowing out with class and grace (paying attention, HRC?)

Gotta respect the Spurs. They could've thrown a Cuban-style hissy fit when the refs swallowed their whistle at the end of Game 4, when Derek Fisher clearly jumped into Brent Barry with a few seconds left and the Spurs trailing by two. That might've given Barry two (or even three) foul shots. The no-call cost the Spurs the game. (Even the NBA later acknowledged that Fisher did indeed foul Barry.) But instead of stirring the pot, the Spurs defused the controversy, graciously commenting that refs want players to decide the game at the end.

No whining, they fought hard, lost to the better team and exited with grace. Classy champions to the end. Here's to hoping a certain sore loser will start taking some notes. God knows some of her supporters (and especially her self-pitying, paranoid husband) sure need to be taught a lesson on class and grace.[1]

Hillary, don't be like this:



[1] To be fair, this week, I saw my first "Bros Before Hoes" shirt (with cartoons of Obama and Clinton) by the courthouse in downtown LA, worn by a twentysomething Amjack. Such patently offensive displays of sexism were far too common in this campaign, and Hillary-supporters are correct to point out the double standard. However, she didn't lose because of sexism. She lost because she became a casualty of her campaign's incompetence and her (and her advisors') transparent dishonesty.

Super Tuesday Predix

For all of Barack's momentum, what's hurt him the most is "Dream Ticket" meme, which has taken hold after Thursday's convivial debate. Though Obama's gains have been astonishing by any measure, I suspect many undecideds will end up pulling the trigger for Hillary just because Barack hasn't made the most devastating case against her (see the post below for the harsher case), and that they hold out hope that Obama will be picked as Hillary's VP. I've heard this distressing angle in numerous conversations with Hillary supporters and undecideds while canvassing, and it's hard to just say, "Hillary sucks, and Barack knows it, so he'll never her VP". So I see Obama stalling a bit on Tuesday, maybe coming 90 delegates short of Hillary. That should be sufficient for him to go forward and roll over Clinton the rest of the month (the remaining elections on calendar this month are favorable to Obama).

Predix:

States where Clinton will win > 10%: NY, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma
States where Clinton will win between 5 and 10 points: New Jersey.
States where Clinton will eke out a close win: California (sigh), New Mexico, Arizona, Missouri

States where Obama will eke out a close win: Connecticut, Kansas, Massachusetts (curse of the embittered Patriot fans!)
States where Obama will win between 5 and 10 points: Alabama, Delaware, Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, Americans Abroad, Samoa (?)
States where Obama will win > 10%: Illinois, Georgia, Minnesota, Idaho, Alaska

If Obama's within 50 delegates, he'll have strong momentum going into February 9/10th. If Clinton beats Obama by over 100 delegates, Obama will be in trouble.

2008 Prez - GOP

[Uh oh. One hour before the caucus I completely forgot I had this post to finish. In Shanghai watching the election returns at the moment, but thought I'd try to complete a post mostly written a month ago. I think it still mostly holds up.]

We're headed to uncharted waters. One month before the first primaries open, the Republican presidential race is wide open. Any one of four candidates can still get the nod. Though it's terribly difficult to imagine of any of these guys doing so.

How did we get here? Think of who's missing. It's easy to imagine someone who'd kick ass in an open GOP primary. Start with a big white head. Add dark brown hair, navy blue suit and red tie. Affix the "Gov." honorific to a strong Anglo name. Plant a pretty-in-an-unthreatening-Doris-Day-kind-of-way wife. Two blonde kids, preferably girls, in their teens. Southern drawl. Baptist. Multi-millionaire.

Once you've created the avatar, you just need to add a few substantive touches. Make sure he gives full-throated support to tried-and-true conservative positions -- cut taxes, kill people, cut taxes, deport people, save fetuses, guns, cut taxes, deregulate, help defense contractors, cut taxes. As well, make sure he gives props to the right people, which, include, in no particular order, God, Reagan, Jesus, Saint Ronnie, "strict constructivist" judges, the troops, the 40th and greatest president evah. Most importantly, make sure he's liked by the folks that matter: (in no particular order) the GOP party financiers, the leaders of the religious right, Big Oil, Big Pharma, and defense contractors. And don't forget: your dream candidate must appeal to a vital but underpublicized wing of the GOP: the haters.

Looking at this profile, one name comes to mind. But the name, alas, is the problem. You can't be named Bush and expect to wiggle out of the 80 pound anchor marked "GWB legacy" chained to your ankle. So the ambitions of Jeb Bush, the ideal GOP candidate (socially conservative, liked by GOP money men, big state governor, charismatic, competent), has been yet another casualty of the current president's reckless regime.

So we're left with John McCain and a bunch of clowns. Whoever wins the nod will likely lead a splintered, deflated party on the verge of a realignment. The Republicans of 2008 are the Democrats of 1968: it's a governing party comprised of ideologically distinct, often conflicting groups banded together for common cause against "liberals". It's a confederation that is now about to come apart at the seams. The choice of the GOP nominee will provide the clearest indication of where the GOP is eventually headed once it reconstitutes itself. That makes this race doubly interesting.

Anyway, the following is my assessment of where the race stands today (November 10), along with my personal evaluation of the candidate, listed in descending order according to their odds of winning.

Mitt Romney (chance of winning at 33%)

Path to nomination: The most plausible scenarios still find Slick Mitt standing at the end. Romney's best bet is too outlast surging Mike Huckabee (with his stronger organization and perhaps some last minute smears) in Iowa. His "comeback" will give him momentum to handily take New Hampshire, where he's leading. With Grandpa Fred taking just enough of the Evangelical vote from a hobbling Huckabee, Romney clinches in South Carolina. The other path going nuclear on Huckabee in South Carolina after the two split Iowa and NH, with Huckabee lacking the resources to make his last stand. McCain is done after losing NH, and Giuliani is toast after not finishing higher than fourth in any of the early states.

Electability: (2 out of 10.) The Mittster is the weakest of the GOP candidates in a general election. First, he's Mormon, which will hurt him with a non-trivial segment of the GOP base. Second, the man is a transparent panderer, which hurts in a climate where authenticity is prized. Third, he's basically a generic Mr. Republican from casting call in an election where the GOP candidate has to transcend his tarnished party label. In a more favorable climate for the GOP, Romney might be the most electable of the bunch. He's the least offensive and the most superficially appealing candidate out there. In an election where the Republican nominee has to do more, Mitt's likely a goner.

Easiest Democratic Opponent to Defeat: Hillary Clinton. This election -- the most likely election match-up still -- would be a battle of inauthentic technocrats moving hard towards the "middle." Romney's personal liabilities would be minimized against Hillary, and swing voters might be attracted to his Ultra-competent White Boss mien -- perhaps enough for him to keep it close.

Hardest Democratic Opponent to Defeat: Barack Obama. The press, who hates Romney and worships Obama's authenticity and bipartisanship rhetoric, would be Obama's second battalion. It'd be a rout.

My personal view: Romney will say or do anything to be president. But jury's out on whether that's a good or bad trait. On the one hand, by catering to the Haters, the former governor is clearly a contemptible, smarmy ass with no spine or backbone, running the most cynical campaign I've ever had a chance to live through. On the other hand, his flexibility gives hope that the man would govern more in line with his moderate Rockefeller Republican record rather than his wingnutty rhetoric. Can't stand the guy, but he might be tolerable. Romney's the former CEO of Bain & Company -- he can't possibly believe the lunatic stuff he's been saying, can he?

Mike Huckabee (18%)

Path to Nomination: This guy needs to start running really hot. If Huckabee can withstand the increased press scrutiny and the Grover Norquist-wing's expected attacks, he looks to prevail in Iowa. With that win, money starts to pour into the shoe-string campaign. Riding the Iowa momentum, Huckabee finishes in the top 4 in NH, with Romney a weak winner. The story from New Hampshire is Ron Paul's shockingly strong second, which also knocks out McCain and Giuliani, who finishes an embarrassing fifth. Huckabee puts all of his marbles in South Carolina. A blow out win in the Palmetto State cripples Romney, and with his competitors fallen by the wayside, Huckabee marches to victory.

Electability: (4). An affable campaigner with a folksy charm, Huckabee's a dangerous foe mainly because he's a true "compassionate conservative." Spouting feel-good populist bromides, Huckabee has a chance to win over that wide swath of America that is economically populist and socially conservative. Is he the Democrats' biggest nightmare? Huckabee's recent performance in the spotlight (not having heard about the NIE, for example) doesn't bode well, but I've got to believe he's potentially the most electable Republican after McCain, unless, of course, he's destroyed by his inner-yahoo. Huckabee's media savvy will reduce to the media's institutional contempt for socially conservative populists, and residual Republican loyalty will prevent the Norquist-wing from abandoning him, especially if Huckabee makes some kind of anti-tax-raising pledge.

Best matchup: John Edwards. Populists duke it out, but Huck's religious right credentials and Edwards' problems with projecting authenticity may make him competitive. An Edwards-Huckabee matchup would surely beckon Bloomberg into the race as the candidate of the elites, allowing Huckabee to win with ~40%.

Worst matchup: Obama. 45 state landslide.

My personal take: What's surprising isn't Huckabee's recent surge but that he's been stuck in the second-tier for so long. (I bought Huckabee futures contracts in February.) The Arkansan's formidable political skills have been talked about for a long time, and for awhile, he was a favorite of the liberal blogosphere, largely because he didn't appear certifiable. Sure, Huck believes the Earth is created in 7 days and all that, but on policy matters, he seemed pragmatic enough, at least until recently, when it's clear he doesn't really give a hoot about policy details (Huck's m.o. is making a show of how his heart is in the right place.) But the former preacher needs the Hater vote now, so I can't imagine him being the liberals' favorite GOP candidate (non-Ron Paul division) for much longer.


John McCain (15% ed. note now 25%)

Path to the nomination: Win New Hampshire big after Romney skids in Iowa. Count on his operation in South Carolina, where the party's establishment is largely behind him, to push him past Huckabee. Peel off Rudy supporters and make it into a two way race with either Huck or Romney, and hope that general election polls (which invariably show McCain doing best against the Democratic candidate) and the McCain fan club (aka The Media) work their magic[Not as improbable as previously imagined]. Of course, he still needs to find a way to appease a base hostile to his MSM-beloved maverick persona.

Electability: McCain's the only GOP candidate who has a better than 40% chance of winning in the general election. The media infatuation with him is real, and it'll only grow if he triumphs over Romney and Giuliani, two figures absolutely loathed by the media.

Best Matchup: Obama. If a crisis event breaks during the election season, voters would likely gravitate towards the ancient vet from the hotshot rookie. Also McCain's the only guy in the GOP field who can neutralize Obama's two big advantages: appeal to independents and positive media coverage.

Worst Matchup: Obama. If no crisis event breaks, then the youth and vigor vs. old craggy dude contrast might be too much for even McCain to overcome.

My take: still the only tolerable Republican in the race. Early summer when my pal Brent and I gamed the GOP race, McCain seemed like the only plausible nominee, even understanding the rage the base feels for Saint John's apostasy. And now if McCain wins the GOP nod without pandering to the hate groups (and with Iraq "improving"), he would be a formidable candidate. I'm confident he'll make the best president of this lot, but the Arizonan's probable strength in the general forces me to root against him.

Rudy Giuliani (10%)

Path to the nomination: Rudy's the front-runner in name only, as he's drawing to an inside straight at this point. Rudy's really banking that his celebrity and money will allow him to outlast the other candidates to Super Tuesday, where he hopes to crush his opponents with large media buys and the "America's Mayor" mystique. This strategy works best if no favorite emerges from the early rounds. So Huckabee has to destroy Romney in Iowa, weakening the latter's hold in NH. Rudy finishes third in NH while Romney and McCain destroy each other, and hold on while Romney finally is toast after South Carolina. Then, in a three way match-up with Huckabee and McCain, Rudy consolidates GOP establishment support and wins in Florida, which springs him into the lead in the Super Tuesday states. He wins all the big Super Tuesday states and becomes the presumptive nominee. (Note: bet the farm against Rudy. I did, and I can't imagine a better bet at the moment.)

Electability: This guy will get eaten for lunch. Nobody can overcome that many skeletons.

Best matchup: Obama. Rudy is the mostly likely guy to run on a fear and smear, Islamophobe/racist strategy against Obama. If Obama wins the Democratic nomination on a Mr. Nice Guy platform, he might be handcuffed by that persona and unable to retaliate in kind.

Worst matchup: Hillary. She would have no reservations going ballistic against him. And Rudy is pretty much unelectable if everything is aired.

My personal take: An authoritarian and a demagogue who counts among his advisors a who's-who of neocon chickenhawks, this guy is Bush on steroids. His presidency would be an unalloyed disaster. It's possible that Rudy's lunatic act may be just that...an act, the 9/11 Man has shown himself to be enough of an egocentric maniac that he -- much moreso than Romney -- might actually buy into his own bullshit as some kind heroic Islamo-fascist warrior. Rudy's campaign is despicable, built entirely on lies, exaggerations, demagoguery, and hate. Every single major candidate from both parties is preferable to this whackjob. A part of me hopes he gets the nomination and is utterly destroyed and humiliated.


Ron Paul (1%)

has some neat things to say and is supported by interesting people. But he's not really a Republican.


Fred Thompson (1%)

is a joke.

MLB predictions

The predictions are not, I hope, based on wishful thinking (at least not largely), but rather on obscure stathead metrics like the Pythagorean and equivalent run record (generally closer to measuring a team's true strength than win-loss), and "secret sauce" rankings (Baseball Prospectus's formula of postseason success based on strength of important pitching and defense metrics). Oh, and some observations resulting from having actually watched a bunch of baseball games this year. I gotta give more weight to the metrics, since pretty much every commonly-accepted stathead tool indicate that the Red Sox are the best team in baseball this year, whereas my own eyes tell me this team has a lot of problems.
ALDS 1 - Red Sox over the Angels in 4. The Angels would be a fearsome team if they didn't get screwed by some late-season injuries, and if they didn't suck at Fenway. Right now, the Sox catch the ball better, hit the ball better, and throw the ball better. I'll be going to Game 3, yay me.

ALDS 2 - Indians over the Yankees in 5. Key is Wang. If he outduels Sabathia in the opener, the Yanks prevail. Otherwise, the Indians, closer aside, are an exceptionally balanced team that should end up outlasting a loaded Yankees team that's short on dominant starting pitching, which happens to be the most important element in postseason baseball. Just make sure Betancourt is toeing the rubber at the end of a close game.

NLDS 1 - Rockies over Phillies in 4. Going by stathead metrics, the Rockies are the best team in the NL (outside of the departed Mets, anyway). They also have lightning arms in Morales and Jimenez and play terrific defense, the epic Monday night game aside. Rox should end up outslugging the offensive juggernaut from Philadelphia, who have a staff getting by on Cole Hamels's flowing locks and pins and needles (JC Romero?, Kendrick?, are you kidding me?).

NLDS 2 - Cubs over Diamondbacks in 4. Basically a sentimental pick, though the Diamondbacks are the only team in the playoffs with negative run-differential. That means they might be just a bit lucky. Superior bullpen usage accounted for the Snakes' strong record in one-run games, but the Cubbies are a slightly better team. It comes down to the two Webb versus Zambrano matchups.

ALCS - Sox over the Indians in 7. Pretty even matchup; Indians probably win this if they had home field.

NLCS - Cubs over the Rockies in 7. Rockies are probably better, but not by much. That leaves room for a good story.

World Series - Sox over Cubs in 4. Sentiment only takes you so far though. In an uncertain world, we still need little comforting certainties, like the persistent futility of the Cubs. So we have more agony for the North Siders. But it's not their fault. Any of the AL teams would beat any of the NL teams in 5 games or less. The gap between the leagues remains that wide, last year's fluke aside.

P2P streaming sports

Some folks have asked why I don't blog so much, and my standard response is that I've been watching way too much baseball ever since I've discovered this site.

This myp2p site is basically a compendium of streaming p2p software, with a community centered on seeding live streaming of sports. The site is pretty easy to navigate and is self-explanatory, though I encourage a dig through the forums. Volunteers on that site seed not only much of the daily baseball schedule, but also European soccer, football, NBA as well. Basically, follow their directions, download the third party client software, follow the links and voila! Live streaming sports! I use mainly SOPCast for Red Sox games and VPU (for college football), and even if you don't watch sports, these programs stream TV shows and movies showing in channels in Europe and Asia. Quality isn't always great, but it's hard to get churlish about free programming. Warning: the programs mostly are PC-only.

I know I'll be spending plenty of time this weekend, following the wide-open NL race. All of the division leaders appear intent to cough up the title. It's just a question of whether any team can get lucky and seize the opportunity. In the East, the Mets are in the midst of a historical choke-job, cursed with an awful bullpen, an inconsistent bullpen, and an offense that was humiliated by Joel Pineiro yesterday in one of the biggest of games of the year. The loaded Phillies somehow beat both Tim Hudson and John Smoltz to tie things up with three to play. We may end up with a postseason without the Mets, which had been the best team in the NL through most of the year. Nobody seems to want the NL Central title. The Cubbies are distinctly mediocre, stumbling against bottom-feeders when a couple of wins could put the division away. Luckily for them, they're up against the bumbling Brew Crew, who made five errors in a must-win game and their putative ace Gallardo on the mound. Their series with the Pads is the marquee series this weekend. I like the Pads, who have suffered through horrendous luck and generally runs a good organization, but I'm rooting for the Rockies, who've bolted into contention on the strength of a bunch of young players.

Colorado's the only team that's playing like they want to win, and their Pygathorean record (record based on run-differential, which is a more accurate gauge of a team's true strength) indicate that they are the best team in the NL. Primarily, though the Rockies are appealing because they've won through a youth movement. They've decided (due to financial necessity perhaps) to play good young players rather than load the team with expensive, underperforming veterans that reflect a management philosophy from the 20th century. That philosophy has doomed my 2nd favorite team, the Mariners, who have unfortunately asked hapless GM Bavasi and their incompetent, veteran-obsessed manager McLaren to return. The highly sophisticated Mariner fan blogs do not approve. A similar difficulty is creating havoc for my hometown Dodgers, currently imploding. Whiny, unproductive veterans are pointing the finger at Matt Kemp and James Loney, the most productive Dodgers in the 2nd half. If the reports are true, Loney and especially Kemp might be prima donnas, but it's not as if Jeff Kent is Tony Gwynn himself. Smart Dodger fans know that the organization has some of the best young players in the game, including the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball in Clayton Kershaw. A good organization should aggressively mix in their top young players, or trade them for valuable pieces. I fear that the Dodgers, a team that gave Juan Pierre a $45 million dollar contract, will end up trading Kemp and LaRoche for an aging name like Ken Griffey Jr.

TIFF - Movies Seen

Comments to be fleshed out, hopefully, as I've been bed-ridden for four days following a nasty bug caught on the last day I was at TIFF. Tiff.

Day 1

The Duchess of Langeais (d. Jacques Rivette): B+

This movie tries very hard not to break your heart, but does a little anyway.

The Mourning Forest (d. Naomi Kawase): C+

While I can always go for Shinto animal spirit mumbo jumbo, this movie is about an erratic child-man healing via group therapy. That is much too ask from this viewer.

Flight of the Red Balloon (d. Hou Hsiao-hsien): B/B-

Juliette Binoche is stressed out in this movie. Has anyone ever been stressed in a Hou Hsiao-hsien movie?

My Winnipeg (d. Guy Maddin): B+/B

I noticed that Canadians are very tickled by jokes about how bored and miserable people are in Canada. They were also very entertained by Guy Maddin's live narration of the film, as was I. That's the kind of special presentation that makes TIFF worth it.

Day 2

The Romance of Astrea and Celadon (d. Eric Rohmer): B+/B

What if someone filmed Nicaraguan fourth-graders doing a shadow puppet performance of Corey Hart's "I Wear My Sunglasses at Night" video? It would probably be as pointless and weird as this experiment in period camp. But would it be as fun?

The Man From London (d. Bela Tarr): C+

This movie has elegant tracking shots, images of lusciously inky black, and a guy trying to balance an apple on his nose. I wish I cared about the dude from London, though.

The Edge of Heaven (d. Fatih Akin): B

This movie had a pretty hot lesbian scene. But I think it ends up saying that German liberals should not be helping Turks. Or maybe not. Also, I'm kinda depressed that Hanna Schygulla did not spend 3 million euros to aid her in aging as gracefully Deneuve has.

Ploy (d. Pen-Ek Ratanaruang): C

This movie likes to do that trick where out of nowhere something totally shocking happens, but then it will say ha ha, just a dream. Besides that, it is mostly boring when it is not stupid.

Day 3

Secret Sunshine (d. Lee Chang-dong): B+/B

This movie features the ultimate helper guy. Also a woman who kinda cycles through the five stages of grief one too many times. Movie peters out, but this Lee Chang-dong sure knows how to direct actresses.

Les Chansons d'amour (d. Christopher Honore): C+

I love preening twits like the actor in this movie when he's in one of those French movies all about examining these preening twits under the microscope as if they were plankton on a slide. But who wants to go on an emotional journey with one?

Day 4

4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days (d. Christian Mungiu): A-/B+

Remember when helper friend was stuck in her boyfriend's apartment, subjected to a torturous dinner party where conversation revolved around doctor gossip? Remember how badly she wanted to leave, how tense she looked as she took the champagne glass to toast, and how the camera doesn't even catch the face of other party guests? That was so awesome.

Happiness (d. Hur Jin-ho): B-

Terminal illness movie: -28 points. Soulless city slicker finds humanity in the countryside trope: - 31 points. Corny romance: -22 points. "I wanna hold your hand" scene: -10 points. Maudlin score: -5 points. Somehow turning on a dime into the preferred Destruction Wrought by Weak-Ass, Selfish Man movie: +60 points.

Sad Vacation (d. Shunji Aoyama): D+

I remember a flat, unnecessary movie called Texasville, a sad attempt by Peter Bogdonavich to capture the old magic of The Last Picture Show after producing a string of flops. This is Mr. Aoyama's Texasville, only the results are far worse.

Redacted (d. Brian DePalma): B-

I expected this movie to be abject crap, and so I was shocked when it was not totally retarded. While there are many scenes of community theater badness, DePalma is not afraid to show the central problem for U.S. soldiers in Iraq, which is that they are on a hair's edge all day, playing protector to their potential killers. And also, they've been letting in some serious nutjobs in there.

It's a Free World... (d. Ken Loach): C+

Ken Loach tries really, really hard in this movie to not make a polemic about the Evils of Globalization by casting Pamela Anderson as a single-mom entrepreneur. But soon enough, each scene turns into either Illustration of the Destructive Logic of the Profit Motive, or Example for Why Capitalist Competition Dehumanizes Us All, or Why Must This Bitch Continue to Exploit These Poor Undocumented Workers, Why?

Day 5

Silent Light (d. Carlos Reygadas): B+

This movie is of course excellent. I would use the phrase "tour de force" except every moment in this movie is a "tour de force". Which makes me think maybe this movie has problems.

TIFFing

My September unexpectedly freed up, and what better way to spend some free time than to catch five movies a day in one of the most attractive cities in North America? All accounts a bumper crop of festival goodies, most of which will be screening at the Toronto Int'l Film Festival. Alas, I won't be seeing too many of them, given (1) a short stay of four-and-a-half days; (2) the perverse programmers decided to schedule a bunch of cinephile must-sees at the same time-slot (on the 9 am-noon on September 9: the new Rivette, Rohmer, Roy Andersson, Kitano, and Pen-ek are all screening); and (3) I'm staying mostly away from major commercial releases. I'm aiming largely to catch movies that won't get a release, or at best, have one of those blink-and-it's-gone deals. I've been very bad about catching up to movies on one-week runs lately.

It also means I won't be seeing (or won't aim to see) many of my most eagerly awaited movies of the year, which I hastily rank this way: (1) I'm Not There, Todd Haynes' pomo Dylan riff (with Cate Blanchett!); (2) There Will Be Blood, PTA's long-awaited new effort (with DDL!); (3) No Country for Old Men, Coens' reputed return to form; (4) Paranoid Park, another Gus paean to troubled youth and shot by Chris Doyle (I fully expect this to be my favorite movie of the year), (5) Wes Anderson's The Darjeeling Limited, boasting a typically great cast, trailer, and one sheet, though the Venice reviews are mixed; (6) American Gangster (Crowe + Denzel > 90s version of De Niro + 90s version of Pacino); (7) Ang Lee's steamy Eileen Chang adaptation Lust, Caution (Tony Leung in Tony "the Lover" Leung mode! Hot Chinese ingenue doing full-frontal!); (8) Noah Baumbach's Margot at the Wedding, with Nicole and Jack Black; (9) the acclaimed My Kid Can Paint That; and (10) lastly, what do McCabe and Mrs. Miller, Pat Garrett and Billy the Kid, and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford have in common? Westerns with long titles conjoining two names? Hope for more. Jesse James is billed as a spiritual descendant of those languorous, poetic masterpieces, though I'd settle for a slightly more focused The Proposition.

Eight of the ten cited above will be playing at TIFF. But I think I can wait.

For some reason, the TIFF gods didn't schedule either the new (supposedly terrible) Wong Kar-wai or the new (supposedly terrible) Olivier Assayas. Cannes' fave Actresses is also nowhere to be found. Yet for all the whining one can do, it's hard to complain about four days where new movies by Jacques Rivette, Eric Rohmer, Guy Maddin, Bela Tarr, Hou Hsiao-hsien and the highly regarded Cannes bows Silent Light, Secret Sunshine and 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days are all screening. With the exception of the latter, all of these face iffy prospects for commercial release.

My schedule below is borne of both necessity (I couldn't score tix to Mourning Forest, Secret Sunshine, or Redacted) and choice (I want the flexibility of having some slots open to take advantage of festival buzz). With ticket prices at close to $20 a pop, I'm also wary of taking chances on less touted features.

Anyway, TIFFers, give me a holla if you happen to be at the same screening.

Friday - September 7, 2007

Same Day tix - The Mourning Forest - Scotiabank 4 - 12:00 pm
The Orphanage - Sb 1 - 10 pm

Slots open - (a) 5 pm - 7 pm (Nap)

(b) 9:30 pm - 12 am The Orphanage - Sb 1 (10 pm)
Control - Sb 2 (9:45)

Tentative Schedule

09:45 am - 12:00 pm Rivette - Sb 2
12:00 pm - 02:00 pm (Mourning Forest - Sb 4)
02:45 pm - 04:45 pm Hou Hsiao-hsien - Ryerson
08:00 pm - 09:30 pm Guy Maddin - Wintergarden (Visa Screening Room)
10:00 pm - 12:00 am [Slot (b)]

Saturday - September 8, 2007

Same Day tix - [Choices from (a), (b), and possibly (c)]

Slots open - (a)11 am - 3 pm - The Man from London - Sb 14 (12:30 -3)
My Kid Can Paint That - Sb 2 (12:15-2)

(b) 3 pm - 7 pm - Edge of Heaven - Sb4 (3:30 - 5:45)
Useless (Jia) - V-8 (4:30 - 6)

(c) 9:30 pm - 11 pm (Socialize - Poker?)
Happiness (Hur Jin-Ho) - Sb 1 (9:30)
Chrysalis - Sb 4 (9:45)

Tentative Schedule

09:00 am - 11:00 am Rohmer- Isabelle Bader Theater
12:00 pm - 03:00 pm [Slot (a)]
03:30 pm - 05:45 pm [Slot (b)]
07:00 pm - 09:00 pm Ploy (Pen-ek) - Sb 14
09:15 pm - 12:00 am [Slot (c)]


Sunday - September 9, 2007

Same Day tix - Secret Sunshine - Sb 1 - 11:45 am
Slot (a)

Slots open - (a) 9 am - 11:30 am - (Rush Secret Sunshine if no same day tix avail)
(Sleep in)
Lust, Caution - Sb 2 (9:15 -11:45)
XXY - Sb 4 2 (9:30-11:00)

(b) 5 pm - 9 pm - (City stroll/shop/surf net)
The World Unseen - Sb 3 (6-8 pm)
Barcelona (A Map) - Sb 4 (6:45-9)

Tentative Schedule

09:00 am - 11:30 pm [Slot (a)]
11:45 am - 02:15 pm (Secret Sunshine - Sb 1)
03:30 pm - 05:00 pm Les Chansons d’amour (Honore) - Sb 1
05:00 pm - 09:00 pm [Slot (b)]
09:15 pm - 11:00 pm Chaotic Ana- Ryerson

Monday - September 10, 2007

Same Day tix - 4 Months, 3 Days - Cumberland 1 - 10:00 am
Redacted- Varsity 8 - 6 pm

Slots open - (a) 9am - 12 pm - 4 Months, 3 Weeks... - Cumberland 1 (10 -12 pm)
In Bloom- Sb 2 (12:15-2)

(b) 12 pm - 2:30 pm - George Romero’s Book of the Dead - Sb3 (1:00 - 2:30)
Chrysalis- Sb 1 (12:30 - 2:00)
Happiness - Cumberland 3 (12:15 - 2:15)

Tentative Schedule

09:45 am - 12:00 pm [Slot (a)]
12:00 pm - 02:00 pm [Slot (b)]
02:30 pm - 05:00 pm Shunji Aoyama - Sb 4
06:00 pm - 07:30 pm (Redacted -V 8)
08:00 pm - 10:00 pm Ken Loach - Wintergarden (Elgin)


Tuesday - September 11, 2007

Same Day tix - Jellyfish - Cumb-1 - 2:30 pm or Man from Plains - V8 (2:15 pm)

Slots open - (a) 9 am - 12 pm [ten movies screening but nothing to see]
Night - Cumberland 1 (9 - 11)
Terra - Sb 10 (10 - 12)
Buddha Collapsed Out of Shame - Sb 4 (9-10:30)
Love Comes Lately - Sb 1 (9:15 - 11)
(Sleep in)

(b) 2:30 pm - 5 pm Jellyfish - Cumberland 1 (2:30 - 4:30 pm)
Man From Plains - V8 (2:15 - 4:15)

Tentative Schedule

09:45 am - 12:00 pm [Slot (a)]
12:15 pm - 02:15 pm Silent Light - Scotiabank 4
02:30 pm - 05:00 pm [Slot (b)]